J M Keynes Fellowship Fund Lectures 2024
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Building Bridges to Peace: A Quantitative Evaluation of Power-Sharing Agreements
Power-sharing agreements are used as a tool to reduce political violence in regions of conflict, but agreements are often followed by violence. This is due to the fact that such agreements are introduced during periods of political violence when a country is inside the conflict trap, which makes it difficult to distinguish the effect of the agreement from the political context that generates persistent political violence. In this study we match on pre-agreement conflict risk to estimate the effects of power-sharing agreements on violence using a difference-indifference method.
Chris Rauh on How to Use AI To Predict Conflicts
In a wide ranging interview, he explains the hard problem of predicting conflicts and his research into using AI and news sources to predict future conflict zones.
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Do Fossil Fuel Firms Reframe Online Climate and Sustainability Communication? A Data-Driven Analysis
Identifying drivers of climate misinformation on social media is crucial to climate action. Misinformation comes in various forms; however, subtler strategies, such as emphasizing favorable interpretations of events or data or reframing conversations to fit preferred narratives, have received little attention.
On the Black-White Gaps in Labor Supply and Earnings over the Lifecycle in the US
In the US economy, Black men, on average, receive lower wages than White men, and the difference increases over the working life. The employment rate and the number of hours worked are also lower for Blacks, but the gap is nearly constant. Together these facts suggest that on-the-job human capital accumulation might explain the diverging wages. However, the wage gap and its evolution over the lifecycle cannot be explained by differences in accumulated experience or educational attainment for the cohort we analyze.