Dynamic early warning of conflict

20 June 2022

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office now has access to a forecast and costing model which uses machine learning and newspaper text to predict outbreaks and intensity of internal armed conflict.

The new model for forecasting conflict, which predicts outbreaks of violence and subsequent escalations into armed conflict has been developed with funding by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO). The Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model, by Hannes Mueller (IAE (CSIC) and Barcelona School of Economics), Christopher Rauh (University of Cambridge) and Alessandro Ruggieri (University of Nottingham) simulates the costs and benefits of interventions. This should provide a testing ground for internal FCDO debates on both strategic levels, such as the process of deciding on country priorities, and on the operational level, such as identifying critical periods by the country experts.

Read the full article on the Faculty of Economics site

Image
Two men in conflict resolution