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Tracking the COVID-19 Crisis with High-Resolution Transaction Data

Monday 26th July 2021
Royal Society Open Science
Carvalho, V. M., Garcia, J. R., Hansen, S., Ortiz, A., Rodrigo, T., Rodríguez Mora, J. V. and Ruiz, P.
Payments systems generate vast amounts of naturally occurring transaction data rarely used for constructing official statistics. We consider billions of transactions from card data from a large bank, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, as an alternative source of information for measuring consumption. We show, via validation against official consumption measures, that transaction data complements national accounts and consumption surveys. We then analyse the impact of COVID-19 in Spain, and document: (i) strong consumption responses to business closures, but smaller effects for capacity restrictions; (ii) a steeper decline in spending in rich neighbourhoods; (iii) higher mobility for residents of lower-income neighbourhoods, correlating with increased disease incidence.
Keywords
national accounts
transaction data
consumption
COVID-19
Themes
transmission
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