Error message
Deprecated function: date_create(): Passing null to parameter #1 ($datetime) of type string is deprecated in Drupal\olamalu_janeway\Controller\JanewayPublishedPaperController->getPublicationData() (line 60 of modules/custom/olamalu_janeway/src/Controller/JanewayPublishedPaperController.php).
Drupal\olamalu_janeway\Controller\JanewayPublishedPaperController->getPublicationData('1004') call_user_func_array(Array, Array) (Line: 123) Drupal\Core\EventSubscriber\EarlyRenderingControllerWrapperSubscriber->Drupal\Core\EventSubscriber\{closure}() (Line: 627) Drupal\Core\Render\Renderer->executeInRenderContext(Object, Object) (Line: 121) Drupal\Core\EventSubscriber\EarlyRenderingControllerWrapperSubscriber->wrapControllerExecutionInRenderContext(Array, Array) (Line: 97) Drupal\Core\EventSubscriber\EarlyRenderingControllerWrapperSubscriber->Drupal\Core\EventSubscriber\{closure}() (Line: 181) Symfony\Component\HttpKernel\HttpKernel->handleRaw(Object, 1) (Line: 76) Symfony\Component\HttpKernel\HttpKernel->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 58) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\Session->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 48) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\KernelPreHandle->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 28) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\ContentLength->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 32) Drupal\big_pipe\StackMiddleware\ContentLength->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 191) Drupal\page_cache\StackMiddleware\PageCache->fetch(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 128) Drupal\page_cache\StackMiddleware\PageCache->lookup(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 82) Drupal\page_cache\StackMiddleware\PageCache->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 48) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\ReverseProxyMiddleware->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 51) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\NegotiationMiddleware->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 36) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\AjaxPageState->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 51) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\StackedHttpKernel->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 704) Drupal\Core\DrupalKernel->handle(Object) (Line: 19)
Deprecated function: explode(): Passing null to parameter #2 ($string) of type string is deprecated in Drupal\olamalu_janeway\Controller\JanewayPublishedPaperController->getPublicationData() (line 65 of modules/custom/olamalu_janeway/src/Controller/JanewayPublishedPaperController.php).
Drupal\olamalu_janeway\Controller\JanewayPublishedPaperController->getPublicationData('1004') call_user_func_array(Array, Array) (Line: 123) Drupal\Core\EventSubscriber\EarlyRenderingControllerWrapperSubscriber->Drupal\Core\EventSubscriber\{closure}() (Line: 627) Drupal\Core\Render\Renderer->executeInRenderContext(Object, Object) (Line: 121) Drupal\Core\EventSubscriber\EarlyRenderingControllerWrapperSubscriber->wrapControllerExecutionInRenderContext(Array, Array) (Line: 97) Drupal\Core\EventSubscriber\EarlyRenderingControllerWrapperSubscriber->Drupal\Core\EventSubscriber\{closure}() (Line: 181) Symfony\Component\HttpKernel\HttpKernel->handleRaw(Object, 1) (Line: 76) Symfony\Component\HttpKernel\HttpKernel->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 58) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\Session->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 48) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\KernelPreHandle->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 28) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\ContentLength->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 32) Drupal\big_pipe\StackMiddleware\ContentLength->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 191) Drupal\page_cache\StackMiddleware\PageCache->fetch(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 128) Drupal\page_cache\StackMiddleware\PageCache->lookup(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 82) Drupal\page_cache\StackMiddleware\PageCache->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 48) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\ReverseProxyMiddleware->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 51) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\NegotiationMiddleware->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 36) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\AjaxPageState->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 51) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\StackedHttpKernel->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 704) Drupal\Core\DrupalKernel->handle(Object) (Line: 19)
Deprecated function: explode(): Passing null to parameter #2 ($string) of type string is deprecated in Drupal\olamalu_janeway\Controller\JanewayPublishedPaperController->getPublicationData() (line 67 of modules/custom/olamalu_janeway/src/Controller/JanewayPublishedPaperController.php).
Drupal\olamalu_janeway\Controller\JanewayPublishedPaperController->getPublicationData('1004') call_user_func_array(Array, Array) (Line: 123) Drupal\Core\EventSubscriber\EarlyRenderingControllerWrapperSubscriber->Drupal\Core\EventSubscriber\{closure}() (Line: 627) Drupal\Core\Render\Renderer->executeInRenderContext(Object, Object) (Line: 121) Drupal\Core\EventSubscriber\EarlyRenderingControllerWrapperSubscriber->wrapControllerExecutionInRenderContext(Array, Array) (Line: 97) Drupal\Core\EventSubscriber\EarlyRenderingControllerWrapperSubscriber->Drupal\Core\EventSubscriber\{closure}() (Line: 181) Symfony\Component\HttpKernel\HttpKernel->handleRaw(Object, 1) (Line: 76) Symfony\Component\HttpKernel\HttpKernel->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 58) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\Session->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 48) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\KernelPreHandle->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 28) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\ContentLength->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 32) Drupal\big_pipe\StackMiddleware\ContentLength->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 191) Drupal\page_cache\StackMiddleware\PageCache->fetch(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 128) Drupal\page_cache\StackMiddleware\PageCache->lookup(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 82) Drupal\page_cache\StackMiddleware\PageCache->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 48) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\ReverseProxyMiddleware->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 51) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\NegotiationMiddleware->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 36) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\AjaxPageState->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 51) Drupal\Core\StackMiddleware\StackedHttpKernel->handle(Object, 1, 1) (Line: 704) Drupal\Core\DrupalKernel->handle(Object) (Line: 19)
Is economic recovery a myth? robust estimation of impulse responses
Monday 13th May 2024
Journal of Applied Econometrics
Teulings, C.N. and Zubanov, N.
We estimate the impulse response function (IRF) of GDP to a banking crisis using an extension of the local projections method. We demonstrate that, though robust to misspecifications of the data-generating process, this method suffers from a hitherto unnoticed bias which increases with the forecast horizon. We propose a correction to this bias and show through simulations that it works well. Applying our corrected local projections estimator to the data from a panel of 99 countries observed between 1974 and 2001, we find that an average banking crisis yields a GDP loss of just under 10% in 10 years, with little sign of recovery. Like the original local projections method, our extension of it is widely applicable.
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