Exchange Rate Risk and Business Cycles

Lloyd, S. P. and Marin, E. A.

We show that currencies with a steeper yield curve depreciate at business-cycle horizons. We identify a tent-shaped relationship between exchange-rate risk premia (ERRP) and the relative yield curve slope across horizons that peaks at 3-5 years and is robust to a number of controls, including liquidity yields. Within a no-arbitrage framework, ERRP reflect investors' changing return valuations over the business cycle. We calibrate a two-country, two-factor model of interest rates, where exchange rates are driven by business-cycle - transitory and cyclical - risk. The model quantitatively reproduces the tent-shaped relationship, as well as variation in uncovered interest parity coefficients across horizons.