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Reconstruction multipliers

Wednesday 24th August 2016
CINET:
1613
Trezzi, R. and Porcelli, F.
A law issued to allocate reconstruction grants following the 2009 "Aquilano" earthquake has resulted in a large and unanticipated discontinuity across municipalities with comparable damages. Using diff-in-diff analysis we estimate the "local spending" and the "local tax" multipliers--according to the composition of the stimulus--controlling for the negative supply shock generated by the event. The stimulus prevented a fall in economic activity and the multiplicative effects of tax cuts are estimated much higher than those of spending. Our results underline the importance of countercyclical fiscal interventions and suggest the most effective composition of such a stimulus.
Keywords
Natural disasters
fiscal multipliers
Mercalli scale
C36
E62
H70
Themes
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