Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle

Carvalho, V. M. and Grassi, B.

Do large firm dynamics drive the business cycle? We answer this question by developing a quantitative theory of aggregate fluctuations caused by firm-level disturbances alone. We show that a standard heterogeneous firm dynamics setup already contains in it a theory of the business cycle, without appealing to aggregate shocks. We offer a complete analytical characterization of the law of motion of the aggregate state in this class of models - the firm size distribution - and show that the resulting closed form solutions for aggregate output and productivity dynamics display: (i) persistence, (ii) volatility and (iii) time-varying second moments. We explore the key role of moments of the firm size distribution - and, in particular, the role of large firm dynamics - in shaping aggregate fluctuations, theoretically, quantitatively and in the data.