Tracking the Mutant Strain: Forecasting Covid in the UK
26 July 2021
A new study co-authored by Andrew Harvey, and published in the National Institute Economic Review, focuses on the growth rate of the daily number of cases, and the new mutant variants of COVID.
“Our new time series models are able to track the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK in early 2021. The models are not only simple and transparent, but are able to adapt quickly to changes in key series,” says Professor Harvey. “This ability to respond in a timely fashion is illustrated by the comparison of our estimates of the current R number with those produced by SAGE.”
