Theory Workshop - Darren Hoover

Abstract:

In this paper, I introduce a model of endogenous social distancing to a spatial SIR epidemiological model of coupled metapopulations. With this model, I explore the decision to social distance under decentralised decision making of noncooperative individuals, as well as under various schemes of centralised decision making involving global and regional social planners. Having social distancing levels be determined by regional social planners instead of a global social planner results in more infections and less social welfare, the extent of which increases when regions are more connected. Additionally, restricting a global social planner to uniform social distancing policies results in worse outcomes, both in terms of infections and social welfare, the less regions are connected. Lastly, I find that the benefits of travel restrictions are notably different when the model includes endogenous social distancing."