Dynamic early warning of conflict

The new model for forecasting conflict, which predicts outbreaks of violence and subsequent escalations into armed conflict has been developed with funding by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO). The Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model, by Hannes Mueller (IAE (CSIC) and Barcelona School of Economics), Christopher Rauh (University of Cambridge) and Alessandro Ruggieri (University of Nottingham) simulates the costs and benefits of interventions.

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