Dr. Thomas Winberry

Host: 

Prof. Tiago Cavalcanti 

Visiting from: 

24th May 2022 - 25th May 2022

Room 35 

 

transmission
Dr. Margit Reischer

Hosts: 

Prof. Vasco Carvalho 

Visiting from: 

23 May 2022 - 27 May 2022

transmission
Prof. Costas Arkolakis

Host: 

Prof. Meredith Crowley

Visiting from: 

Feb 2023 TBC

transmission

Perceived Returns to Job Search

In this paper we provide the first evidence on workers’ perceptions of the returns to job search effort. The perceived job finding probability is nearly linear in hours searched and only slightly concave for most respondents. While workers are overoptimistic about the probability of receiving a job offer conditional on any search, they perceive the marginal return to additional search hours as positive but comparably low. Job seekers receiving an offer update their perceived returns upwards, while others’ beliefs regress towards the direction of the mean.

Using Past Violence and Current News to Predict Changes in Violence

This article proposes a new method for predicting escalations and de-escalations of violence using a model which relies on conflict history and text features. The text features are generated from over 3.5 million newspaper articles using a so-called topic-model. We show that the combined model relies to a large extent on conflict dynamics, but that text is able to contribute meaningfully to the prediction of rare outbreaks of violence in previously peaceful countries. Given the very powerful dynamics of the conflict trap these cases are particularly important for prevention efforts

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