The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention

In this article we propose a framework to tackle conflict prevention, an issue which has received interest in several policy areas. A key challenge of conflict forecasting for prevention is that outbreaks of conflict in previously peaceful countries are rare events and therefore hard to predict. To make progress in this hard problem, this project summarizes more than four million newspaper articles using a topic model.

Slums and Pandemics

This paper studies the role of slums in shaping the economic and health dynamics of pandemics. Using data from millions of mobile phones in Brazil, an event-study analysis shows that residents of overcrowded slums engaged in less social distancing after the outbreak of Covid-19. We develop a choice-theoretic equilibrium model in which poorer agents live in high-density slums and others do not. The model is calibrated to Rio de Janeiro. Slum dwellers account for a disproportionately high number of infections and deaths.

Amanda Chuan

Host

Prof. Meredith Crowley

Visiting from:

May 29th 2022 - May 30th 2022

Room 35

transmission
Dr. Thomas Winberry

Host: 

Prof. Tiago Cavalcanti 

Visiting from: 

24th May 2022 - 25th May 2022

Room 35 

 

transmission
Dr. Margit Reischer

Hosts: 

Prof. Vasco Carvalho 

Visiting from: 

23 May 2022 - 27 May 2022

transmission
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